Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 16.692148 19.040853 21.580065 24.526540 27.848823 31.476171 35.734000
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 12.714811 15.760950 19.313331 23.751719 29.137950 35.451559 43.402080
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 10.978388 14.347718 18.470145 23.865918 30.721480 39.118845 50.160846
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 9.748209 13.350025 17.947241 24.214862 32.503238 43.050516 57.447222
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 8.748120 12.478547 17.417980 24.393765 33.941718 46.495407 64.185397
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 7.797891 11.549380 16.687462 24.182168 34.767941 49.105899 69.901862
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 7.145117 10.951793 16.328237 24.403788 36.138295 52.462660 76.760546
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 6.747974 10.673817 16.376874 25.175145 38.294087 56.991898 85.481250
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 6.128568 9.997723 15.775269 24.923805 38.911364 59.320367 91.127624
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.335016 8.975585 14.563017 23.642694 37.874111 59.125629 92.991379
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 5.074339 8.771420 14.583765 24.245335 39.720324 63.299000 101.605589
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.849193 8.602011 14.638922 24.892348 41.656155 67.689946 110.763008
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.450570 8.116150 14.158698 24.659496 42.205693 70.009102 116.903011
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.043807 7.580345 13.553711 24.172853 42.303146 71.608861 121.980993
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.769636 7.251124 13.266741 24.189994 43.216813 74.543942 129.342175
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.581747 7.060193 13.201149 24.577057 44.769249 78.595377 138.743804
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.376322 6.817760 13.023391 24.747086 45.944554 82.060798 147.318448
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.133599 6.482740 12.651432 24.536399 46.424998 84.352141 153.980924
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.972038 6.290196 12.524806 24.759787 47.684410 88.035592 163.220188
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.894835 6.257769 12.694264 25.542169 50.000849 93.679579 176.180429
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.694843 5.959324 12.332326 25.287231 50.371700 95.863977 183.044689
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.391933 5.421261 11.463146 23.988560 48.688405 94.230974 182.874689
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.323411 5.372889 11.562048 24.599475 50.693069 99.455324 195.566318